Early trends from the Bihar assembly elections indicate a strong lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is projected to secure around 161 seats. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is trailing with approximately 78 seats. The ruling NDA, comprising the BJP and Janata Dal (United) among others, has shown significant gains, particularly in Muslim-dominated constituencies.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U) appears to be the biggest beneficiary within the NDA, gaining around eight additional seats compared to the previous assembly elections in 2020. Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is also performing well, leading in six seats with substantial Muslim voter bases.

The RJD, a key player in the MGB, is reportedly losing at least seven Muslim-dominated seats it had previously won, while Congress is trailing in four. In 2020, the RJD had secured 18 of these seats, and Congress had six. Historically, Muslim voters have leaned towards secular alliances, but this election has seen a shift.

The NDA's early success is attributed to strong performances from both the BJP and JD(U). The RJD, while still a significant party in several constituencies, has not been able to match the NDA's overall spread. Notably, Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj party, which aimed to make a significant impact in these elections, has not shown up prominently in the trends, with its vote share remaining marginal.

The counting process is being closely monitored by 243 Returning Officers and an equal number of Counting Observers, with over 18,000 counting agents present at the centres. The election saw participation from over 7 crore voters, with polling conducted in two phases on November 6 and 11. As the counting continues, the NDA's early lead suggests a potential shift in Bihar's political landscape for the next five years.