Repeat after me: Most teams will lose another game.

We're just close enough to the finish line of the regular season that we start to think things are locked into place. Oklahoma is the "first one out" in the College Football Playoff rankings -- the Sooners are in trouble! Texas is 10th -- the Longhorns are in! Five teams have one conference loss atop the ACC and American Conference; therefore, we're guaranteed huge logjams with gross tiebreakers.

Maybe. But most teams will lose another game. There's about a 1-in-3 chance that we end up with even a three-way tie of 7-1 teams atop the American, 1-in-5 in the ACC. Of the teams right on the borderline of the playoff -- say, the ones ranked eighth through 14th -- only one has greater than a 54% chance of winning out between now and Champions

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