Entering Week 12 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.

A few notes before we dig in:

All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 18 unless otherwise noted below.

Terms defined:

If win: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in its upcoming game.

If lose: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in its upcoming game.

Playoff lev

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