Calgary's economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2.4 percent in 2026, surpassing the national average of 1.3 percent. This growth comes despite ongoing trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and changes in domestic policy that create uncertainty for the city. A recent outlook from Calgary Economic Development highlights the importance of diversification and innovation for sustaining growth in the coming years.

Mark Parsons, chief economist at ATB Financial, noted the challenges Calgary has faced in diversifying its economy. "It’s been a very difficult and long journey to see diversification in the Calgary economy," he said. "What we’re seeing in the last three years, especially, is that it truly is happening."

While sectors such as technology, aviation, and food manufacturing have seen growth, oil and gas remain the dominant forces in Calgary's economy. Parsons emphasized that the energy sector continues to be a critical economic engine for both Calgary and Alberta. He remarked, "The Alberta economy has, over the last decade, had to adjust to much lower levels of investment, and that’s been really challenging. It takes time for other sectors to fill that gap."

Calgary's unemployment rate is currently at 7.9 percent and is expected to stabilize around 7 percent next year. Despite the challenges posed by the ongoing trade war, Parsons believes that Calgary is managing better than many other regions. "We’re in the middle of the trade war, but I’d say Alberta, and Calgary in particular, is weathering the storm better than most," he stated.

Brad Parry, CEO of Calgary Economic Development, emphasized the need for vigilance. He stated, "The city’s economy remains resilient, but we cannot afford complacency heading into next year. Given the current climate, we must stay focused on market diversification, building capacity within our local innovation landscape, and giving Calgary businesses the tools to grow, hire, and compete globally."

The population growth in Alberta, while slowing, continues to outpace other regions in Canada, supporting consumer spending and housing activity. The technology sector in Calgary has experienced significant growth, with employment projected to increase by 61 percent from 2021 to 2024, reaching over 64,000 jobs. Parsons noted, "The tech sector really chases talent, and that’s because we have a young, skilled workforce in Calgary that’s been a major draw."

Educational institutions in Calgary, such as the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology and Mount Royal University, have seen increased enrollment in aviation and aerospace programs, responding to the sector's growth. The aerospace industry in Alberta is projected to generate $4.73 billion in revenue by 2030, with employment expected to grow by 60 percent.

Looking ahead, Parsons expressed optimism about the federal government's commitment to improving regulations and advancing major projects. He stated, "I think 2026 is going to be all about execution, and the federal government working with the provinces, delivering on its promises to catalyze a trillion dollars of private investment. Let’s get our stuff to overseas markets, let’s get major projects built, and let’s continue to knock down provincial trade barriers."