President Donald Trump’s tariffs won’t raise enough cash to fund the $2,000 "dividend" checks he proposes to send to millions of Americans, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.

Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of $2,000 dividend checks to pass along revenue from his import taxes to low- and middle-income Americans.

In a Nov. 10 post on Truth Social, Trump suggested tariffs would raise enough revenue to fund dividend checks, with enough left over to "SUBSTANTIALLY PAY DOWN NATIONAL DEBT."

Tax Foundation researchers do not agree.

The foundation, which generally favors lower taxes, estimates Trump’s tariffs will raise $158.4 billion in 2025 and $207.5 billion in 2026.

Who, exactly, is getting 'tariff dividend' checks?

Trump has not specified who would get the checks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested an income limit of $100,000.

For a Nov. 18 post, the Tax Foundation ran the numbers on three dividend check scenarios, with the most conservative cutting checks only to Americans who earn $100,000 or less.

The various models yielded costs ranging from $279.8 billion to $606.8 billion. All three exceed the income tariffs will generate this year, according to foundation researchers.

"The math just doesn’t work," said Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation.

At least two other independent think tanks have reached similar conclusions.

On Nov. 10, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget predicted tariff dividend checks would cost about $600 billion. On Nov. 17, the Budget Lab at Yale put the cost at $450 billion. Both analyses predicted the cost of dividend checks would exceed the revenue from tariffs.

Are the $2,000 checks really a tariff dividend?

If tariffs don’t generate enough money to cover the checks, some researchers contend, it’s not really accurate to call them a "tariff dividend." To the extent that their cost exceeded tariff revenues, the checks would amount to an unfunded expense, increasing the national deficit.

"You could do dividend checks, but they need to match the amount of revenue the tariffs are actually raising," said Kyle Pomerleau, a senior fellow at the libertarian American Enterprise Institute. "So, I think they got ahead of their skis by promising $2,000, and further ahead of their skis by naming a specific cutoff."

Trump has said he wants to send dividend checks some time in 2026.

Some in the Trump administration have voiced optimism that tariffs could indeed raise enough revenue to cover them.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, recently told reporters that "if you look at how much tariff revenue has been coming in, then there would actually be enough room to cover those checks and not go into the rest of the budget."

To test that thesis, the Tax Foundation examined various dividend check scenarios.

In the most conservative model, $2,000 checks go out solely to tax filers and their spouses, with a hard cutoff for anyone earning more than $100,000. That scenario would cost $279.8 billion, the foundation estimates.

Sending checks to tax filers, spouses and dependents bumps the cost to $368.3 billion. Add in Americans who don’t file tax returns, and the tab rises to $500.8 billion.

In more expansive scenarios, such as phasing out the checks gradually at higher incomes, the cost of dividend checks could exceed $600 billion.

Tariff dividend checks could ease the affordability crisis

Trump is talking about sending money to Americans at a time when consumers are struggling with years of cumulative inflation, and amid persistent talk of a national "affordability" crisis.

Trump won public favor in his first term by sending out two rounds of stimulus checks during the COVID-19 pandemic. President Joe Biden approved a third round of payments.

Congress greenlit those payouts. Some observers question whether lawmakers would allow this one.

"I’m highly skeptical that Congress will appropriate the money necessary for these checks," said Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the libertarian Cato Institute. "I don’t think Congress has enough people willing to just ignore the budget math."

Some Republicans in Congress have telegraphed their unease about writing checks to Americans at a moment when the national deficit stands at $1.8 trillion.

"I think it would be crazy to send money to people while we have a deficit," said Sen. Rand Paul, the Kentucky Republican, according to Bloomberg.

Tariffs, of course, are one reason why many consumer goods cost more now than a year ago.

A growing number of Americans believe Trump is contributing to the nation’s affordability problem, polls show. That sentiment may have driven Democrats to big wins at the polls in early November.

Tariff dividend checks could help Trump address that issue.

"The president is sort of creating a problem and then trying to fix his own problem," said Durante of the Tax Foundation.

The think tank’s Nov. 18 post suggests a simple alternative to dividend checks.

"A better way to provide relief from the burden of tariffs," researchers wrote, "would be to eliminate the tariffs."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump wants to send $2,000 checks. Tariffs may not cover them.

Reporting by Daniel de Visé, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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