After a more than monthlong delay due to what became the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Nov. 20 released its September jobs report.

The report found U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.3% to 4.4%. Job gains for July and August were revised down by 33,000, portraying an even weaker labor market than believed in late summer.

How these insights will affect the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision remains unclear amid a lack of more recent government data, stubborn inflation, and a divided Federal Open Market Committee.

The report, originally due out Oct. 3, reflects what was happening before the shutdown began. The labor market may have changed since the data was collected.

The BLS confirmed Nov. 19 it will not release a full standalone U.S. jobs report for October, saying it will instead release October payroll data alongside a full November report. The agency added the November jobs report, originally due out Dec. 5, will be released Dec. 16 – six days after the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its final two-day meeting of the year.

How is the job market right now?

Before the shutdown, economists and policymakers were heavily anticipated the September employment survey after the August report showed the U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs, down from 73,000 jobs added in July, when gains for the previous two months were revised down by 258,000.

Without government data on the employment situation in October, eyes turned to private sector metrics. A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas found employers cut more than 150,000 jobs in October, propelled by cost cuts and growing adoption of artificial intelligence.

A combination of layoffs at some businesses and a deceleration in hiring suggest it’s a tough time for job seekers.

"As data flow resumes, our understanding of the economy may need to adjust to reality, and so will financial markets,” Bankrate Senior Economic Analyst Mark Hamrick said in a Nov. 17 note. “With the Fed approaching another key decision on rates and with consumers feeling the one-two punch of elevated prices and a slowing job market, volatility shouldn’t be a surprise."

Which industries are hiring?

Health care, a steady job engine in recent years, added 43,000 jobs in September. Food services and drinking places added 37,000, and the social assistance sector added 14,000.

On the other hand, transportation and warehousing lost 25,000 jobs, and federal government employment continued to decline in September, shedding another 3,000 after months of mass layoffs.

In September, there was little change to employment numbers in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, financial activities, professional and business services, and other services.

Will the Fed cut rates in December?

Growing concerns about cooling in the job market appear to have prompted the Federal Reserve to slash rates in September and October, but another cut isn’t guaranteed.

At a press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said voting members were not in agreement about how to proceed in December.

"For some part of the committee, it's time to maybe take a step back and see whether there really are downside risks to the labor market or see whether in fact the growth, the stronger growth that we're seeing, is real," Powell said.

Oxford Economics thinks the split committee will likely hold rates steady in December, and that “a firming economic outlook” and persistent inflation could mean a slower pace of rate cuts next year.

“‘Some’ of those that supported the rate-cut decision could have also supported holding policy unchanged, while ‘several’ were against lowering rates,” Oxford Economics’ Deputy Chief U.S. Economist Michael Pearce said in a Nov. 20 note. “Amid the lack of official labor market data, there was little to convince or dissuade policymakers around the downside risks to the jobs market.”

As of Nov. 20, futures markets predict the central bank will keep its benchmark rate at a range of 3.75% to 4% in December.

This story was updated to add new information.

Reach Rachel Barber at rbarber@usatoday.com and follow her on X @rachelbarber_

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Economy added 119,000 jobs and unemployment ticked up in September, delayed report shows

Reporting by Rachel Barber, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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