Sometimes a bullpen arm arrives with the kind of metrics that make evaluators lean forward a little. That was the case when the New York Yankees traded for Mark Leiter Jr. before the 2024 deadline, a move driven less by surface results and more by the numbers lurking beneath. On paper, he looked like the kind of pitcher who could thrive in a sharper defensive environment and a more matchup-driven system. In practice, the gap between theory and reality never closed.

What the Yankees Thought They Were Getting

The Yankees didn’t bring Leiter in because of his 4.21 ERA with the Cubs. They brought him in because that ERA sat miles above his 2.70 expected ERA and a standout 2.12 FIP. When a pitcher’s peripherals look that strong, it usually tells you the runs allowed column is the outlier, not

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