A s financial traders milled around 26 floors up in a tower in the Canary Wharf district of London, there was little sign of nerves ahead of Rachel Reeves’s second budget – until the surprise accidental early release of the government’s official economic analysis started to move markets.

Headline numbers from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) flashed through on banks of computer screens, followed shortly by the detailed analysis itself.

“Boom! There’s your 200-pager,” said Will Marsters, a sales trader at Saxo UK, a trading platform that hosted the Guardian for the announcement. The leak triggered a race across trading desks in the City of London to understand the implications of the leaked forecasts – and laughter at the hapless forecaster.

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