As the United Conservative Party (UCP) prepares for its annual general meeting this weekend, Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet with Premier Danielle Smith. Their discussions will focus on a strategy for pipelines, energy regulatory reform, and carbon capture initiatives. This meeting comes at a critical time, as some Albertans who support independence view Carney as a potential ally in their cause.

The separatist movement in Alberta has been vocal for decades, but many believe it is now more organized than ever. For those advocating for Alberta's separation from Canada, negotiations with the federal government may not hold much significance. One concerned Albertan expressed frustration, stating, "Carney puts the country further into debt, and at the same time cripples our ability to earn." Another added, "A bad deal on pipelines can be worse than no deal at all."

The upcoming UCP AGM is seen as an opportunity for separatists to gain influence within the party and push for a referendum on independence. The re-election of a Liberal government in April has energized these advocates, who feel the time is ripe to pursue their goals. One supporter remarked, "You miss every shot you don’t take."

Conversations with various Albertans, including conservative insiders and separatist supporters, reveal a mix of sentiments regarding the independence movement. Some individuals have quietly supported the idea for years but are only now comfortable expressing their views. Others worry about the potential consequences of a separatist movement within the province and the UCP.

The prospect of U.S. recognition of an independent Alberta has also been a topic of discussion. While some polls indicate that support for separation remains a minority view—typically around 25-30 percent—others suggest that internal UCP surveys show over 60 percent support among party members. However, these figures are debated and depend on how questions about sovereignty and independence are framed.

Currently, there is no approved referendum on independence, but a court hearing is underway in Edmonton regarding a citizen initiative that would ask voters if they agree to make Alberta a sovereign country. In contrast, a petition launched by former Alberta deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk, aimed at countering separatist sentiments, has gathered nearly half a million signatures.

The push for Alberta's independence is a complex mix of grassroots activism and political maneuvering. Key players include the Republican Party of Alberta, which advocates for a binding referendum on independence, and the Alberta Prosperity Project, which claims to be the largest political organization in the province. This movement has been described as a "spiritual successor" to earlier grassroots efforts that helped elect Premier Smith.

At the UCP AGM, the influence of groups like Take Back Alberta, which recently secured all eighteen board seats, will be felt. While there are many religious individuals involved in the independence movement, it is not a religious organization. Preston Manning, founder of the Reform Party, noted that many western populist movements have had a spiritual dimension.

Frustration among Albertans is palpable, with various groups, including health care unions and the Alberta Teachers’ Association, expressing dissatisfaction with the current government. The opposition NDP is also mobilizing, with multiple recall petitions aimed at challenging the UCP majority.

As Premier Smith approaches negotiations with Prime Minister Carney, she is expected to maintain a positive outlook. Carney, who previously faced challenges during the U.K.'s Brexit, will need to navigate the complexities of Alberta's aspirations while ensuring economic competitiveness for the province within Canada. Advocates for Alberta's continued role in Canada hope to hear Carney commit to expediting pipeline construction, emphasizing the urgency of the situation as they look toward the future.