President Donald Trump’s “favorite pollster” has a grim warning for the GOP.

A survey by McLaughlin and Associates warns that Republicans are hemorrhaging support from all-important independent voters—a damning sign for the party as it tries to maintain House and Senate majorities through the midterms.

In a column for Newsmax explaining the findings, John McLaughlin, a pollster for the 2024 Trump campaign, and his brother, Jim, wrote that there is an “increasingly challenging landscape for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections.”

Specifically, the right-wing pollsters wrote that Democrats are leading the generic congressional ballot 45 percent to 44 percent, marking the first time they have led in their surveys since the 2024 election. That means every pollster tracked by

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