For the first time ever, U.S. holiday spending is expected to surpass $1 trillion in 2025. Retailers are celebrating, economists are buzzing and the ads promising “can’t-miss deals” have been creeping into every screen and storefront for weeks now. But as a financial expert, I see a different story unfolding, one that should make consumers pause before swiping their cards.

There’s no denying that a trillion dollars in holiday sales signals a strong, confident consumer. But it can also signal a nation slipping into dangerous spending habits at the exact moment when many households are already stretched thin. The cost of everyday essentials remains stubbornly high, and credit card interest rates continue hovering near historic peaks.

In other words: this is a terrible year to overspend.

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