After a monthslong boycott of American soybeans, China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of the crop by the end of the year. However, it’s a long way from making good on its promise, having bought only just over 1.5 million metric tons so far.

Soybean prices have rallied on China’s pledge, nevertheless, making some wonder if the market’s jubilance is appropriate.

“This is a debate that everyone's having,” Minnesota Soybean Growers Association Secretary Kyle Jore said. “Is the current price appropriate for a 12 million [metric ton purchase], or for what we actually know, which is about a one and a half million [metric ton purchase]?”

Markets are pricing in the expectation that China will buy all the soybeans it says it will, Jore said. But he’s worried that might not happen.

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