A Texas judge expected to announce his candidacy in a high-profile U.S. House race as soon as Tuesday isn’t likely to face repercussions despite attracting a complaint filed with the Federal Election Commission , experts told Raw Story.

Tano Tijerina, a Democrat-turned-Republican judge in Webb County, Texas, has long been eyeing a campaign against Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX).

Cuellar has held the 28th congressional district seat since 2005, now a prime GOP target in recent redistricting attempts and in light of bribery charges against Cuellar.

On Nov. 21, Cecilia Martinez, an ethics professor from San Antonio, filed an FEC complaint, alleging Tijerina used an exploratory committee to circumvent state resign-to-run laws, which require officeholders to step down from an elected job upon deciding to campaign for another, if there’s more than a year and 30 days left in the term.

Tijerina’s term as a county judge ends Dec. 31, 2026. But, he launched an exploratory committee for a challenge to Cuellar in June, gaining national attention.

Martinez’s allegation that Tijerina violated federal law has also attracted coverage.

She alleges Tijerina made up his mind to run for Congress long before launching his exploratory committee, citing interviews with local TV and radio stations where the judge acknowledged needing to wait until after Dec. 1 to announce a potential candidacy, in order to keep his job.

The complaint also references a social media post, shared by Tijerina, from a Webb County employee who said she was excited to see her “boss” head to Congress.

The FEC says a candidate is considered to be campaigning rather than “testing the waters” if they advertise or make statements as candidates, inform the media of a planned date to announce their candidacy, or raise more money than “reasonably needed to test the waters.”

The complaint says: “Judge Tijerina’s congressional campaign remains under the guise of an exploratory committee not because he is legitimately testing the waters, but because he does not want to face the state-law consequences of declaring his candidacy.”

Tijerina’s exploratory committee called the complaint a “political sham.”

“Judge Tano Tijerina is following every federal and state rule governing exploratory activity, and has not crossed a single legal line,” said the committee in an X post shared by Tijerina on Nov. 23.

“This is a coordinated smear campaign by far-left operatives terrified that even the possibility of Judge Tijerina exploring a run jeopardizes their grip on TX-28.

“Instead of finding an alternative for their own ethically compromised incumbent, they dug up an ‘online’ professor to rubber-stamp a flimsy accusation that falls apart the moment you read it.”

Bradley A. Smith, a professor at Capital University Law School who served on the FEC from 2000-05, including a year as chair, told Raw Story: “These are very hard cases to try to claim, ‘Oh, no, he's actually a candidate and needs to start filing reports as a candidate.

“You basically are asking the FEC, or eventually a court, to sort of mind read what the person was really planning to do.”

‘They game laws all the time’

Once an individual decides to become a candidate, they are required to register with the FEC within 15 days of raising or spending $5,000.

The Tijerina complaint points out that he is working with a political consultancy, Lilly and Company, and hosted a fundraiser in October, soliciting donations between $500 and $7,000.

View this post on Instagram A post shared by The College Republicans at Texas A&M International (@tamiucr)

But fundraising for an exploratory committee is allowed even if it exceeds $5,000, the FEC says. Only once the individual decides to be a candidate does the $5,000 threshold come into play.

Smith said: “The whole idea is to test the water. You’re telling people, ‘Yeah, I'm thinking about running for Congress. I'm thinking really seriously about it. I'm raising money for it,’ because, remember, you can raise this money, and then if you declare, then the money all has to be reported.”

Activities considered to be testing the waters include polling, traveling and making calls.

“By definition, you are doing campaign stuff, and you can very specifically do things like public polling, see how you might do, and that sort of thing,” Smith said.

“So, it's pretty easy for a candidate in this position, especially once the complaint is filed … to just say, ‘Well, yeah, I'm considering it, there's no doubt about that … that's why I set up an exploratory committee, but I haven't made a final decision.’”

While “all the money he's raising is in accordance with the rules,” Smith said Tijerina could be in “technical violation.”

“Is he gaming the Texas state law? Yeah, probably, but they game laws all the time in this kind of thing,” Smith said.

Randall Erben, an adjunct professor at the University of Texas at Austin School of Law, said it’d be up to a court to determine if Tijerina was a candidate prior to 13 months before the end of his term.

Erben said Texas courts “like eligibility, and they like people staying in office. That’s the public policy of the state.”

However, the framers of the resign-to-run provisions wanted “public office holders to pay attention to what they were doing.

“They were elected to a full term on a county or district office or city office. They wanted them to focus 100 percent on the duties for which they were elected, and not be spending a lot of time seeking other office.

“It's pretty simple public policy, and especially in this day and age where campaigning is 24/7, 365, I think the public policy is probably even more valid now than it was when they added it in the 1950s.”

‘Cost of doing business’

The FEC would not confirm receipt of the Tijerina complaint, due to confidentiality requirements. Any complaint resolutions are published 30 days after a vote to close the matter, said spokesperson Myles Martin.

Smith said: “As a practical matter, I don't think the FEC has ever been very rigorous in trying to say, ‘You've gone too far.’”

With President Donald Trump firing one commissioner and others resigning, the agency has for months lacked a quorum, meaning it “can't act on anything” anyway, Smith said.

“If we think about this for the midterms … it's quite likely that if the fine were assessed [against Tijerina], it wouldn't be until, quite possibly, after the 2026 election.

“A lot of campaigns say, ‘Well, cost of doing business,’ at that point.”