Tulane Green Wave quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) runs the ball during the second quarter against the Ole Miss Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi.

The No. 20 North Texas Mean Green (11-1, 7-1) and No. 21 Tulane Green Wave (10-2, 7-1) meet Friday in the American Conference Championship Game. Kickoff from Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana, is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ABC). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA football odds around the North Texas vs. Tulane odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

Tulane leads the all-time series 3-0 over North Texas. The Green Wave won 45-37 in the most recent meeting last season in Denton as a 7-point favorite as the Over (70) cashed. The Green Wave won the only previous meeting as American Conference members in New Orleans on Oct. 21, 2023, a 35-28 win, although UNT covered as 20-point underdogs as the Under (64.5) covered.

North Texas won 52-25 in the regular-season finale against the Temple Owls, covering as 20.5-point favorites, as the Over (65.5) cashed. QB Drew Mestemaker threw for 234 yards and 2 TDs, while RB Caleb Hawkins rans for 135 yards and 3 scores.

Since a 63-36 loss at the USF Bulls on Oct. 10, UNT has won and covered 6 in a row, with the Over cashing in 3 in a row, and 6 of 7 games. Mestemaker completed 70.9% of his passes for 3,835 yards, 29 TDs and 4 INTs.

Tulane shut out the Charlotte 49ers 27-0 in the season finale, but missed covering as a 31-point favorite as the Under (52) cashed. QB Jake Retzlaff threw for 291 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs with 2 rushing TDs. He completed 62.6% of his passes this season for 2,717 yards, 14 TDs and 6 INTs, while running for 561 yards and 14 scores.

The Green Wave won its final 4 games since a 48-26 loss at the UTSA Roadrunners, but they're just 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in the final 6 games. the Under cashed in the final 3 games, with Tulane allowing just 12.3 points per game (PPG). The Under is also 7-2 in the final 9 outings.

Tulane coach Jon Sumrall was hired by the Florida Gators on Sunday, but athletic director David Harris has granted Sumrall's request to coach in the league title game, with a possible playoff spot hanging in the balance. Tulane is ranked No. 24 in the CFP rankings. The winner of this game has a very good chance to be the Group of 5 conference champion heading to the 12-team playoff bracket.

Meanwhile, North Texas coach Eric Morris has taken the same job at the Oklahoma State Cowboys, and he will also be allowed to coach the team in the title game and beyond, if it makes the playoffs.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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North Texas at Tulane odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:01 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): North Texas -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Tulane +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread: North Texas -2.5 (-115) | Tulane +2.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 66.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

North Texas at Tulane picks and predictions

Prediction

Tulane 37, North Texas 34

Moneyline

TULANE (+115) is a strong play at home in this American Conference Championship Game.

The Green Wave finished the season unbeaten in 6 home games, including victories of the Northwestern Wildcats (23-3 as a 4.5-point favorite) on Aug. 30, and against the ACC Championship Game entrant Duke Blue Devils (34-27 as a 1-point favorite) on Sept. 13. It was 4-0 straight up (SU) in the conference portion of the home schedule, but it was just 1-3 ATS, including non-covers in the past 3 outings. Meanwhile, North Texas was 5-0 SU in 5 road games, with 4 straight covers.

Against the spread

TULANE +2.5 (-105) is worth a look if you would like a little insurance, and you're thinking perhaps this result comes down to an extra point or 2-point conversion, perhaps in overtime.

If you like the Green Wave, the better play is straight up, but no one can blame you for wanting a little extra wiggle room in a game between 2 ranked foes.

Over/Under

OVER 66.5 (-115) is a strong play whenever North Texas is involved.

UNT has cashed in 3 in a row, and 9 of the past 11 outings. The Mean Green have scored 31 or more points in all 12 games this season, while allowing 24 or more points in the final 3 games to non-bowl teams -- the UAB Blazers, Rice Owls and Temple Owls. Tulane should be capable of doing much more.

Tulane finished with 24 or more points in the final 8 games, while the defense stepped up. That might be the difference in this game. The Green Wave allow 19 or fewer points in 5 of the final 8 games, including a total of just 13 points allowed in the final 2 contests.

While Tulane's defense did well against the lesser teams, we saw 82 total points in this meeting last season, and there is no reason to believe we won't see plenty of points here.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: North Texas Mean Green at Tulane Green Wave odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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