There was yet another sign this week of a potential 2026 wave that could hand control of the House of Representatives to Democrats.

Republicans won a special congressional election in Tennessee , but only by 9 points in a district the Republican candidate last year won by 22 points.

That's in line with the double-digit overperformances by Democrats in elections this year .

On average, Democrats have done 14 points better than candidates in 2024 (including comparing the presidential results in 2024 to the governors' races in New Jersey and Virginia last month).

Here's how that breaks down:

FL-1 — 2024: R+32, 2025: R+15; Difference: D+17

FL-6 — 2024: R+33, 2025: R+14; Difference: D+19

VA-11 — 2024: D+34, 2025: D+50; Difference: D+16

AZ-7 — 2024: D+27, 2025: D+39; Differe

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