Merab Dvalishvili (red gloves) reacts after defeating Sean O’Malley (not pictured) in a bantamweight title fight during UFC 316 at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

In a 5-round bantamweight championship bout in the main event, Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan meet Saturday at UFC 323 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN+, Disney+, FX), followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2, ESPN+, Disney+, FX), and the main card at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.

Records: Dvalishvili (21-4-0) | Yan (19-5-0)

The current bantamweight champ, representing Serra-Longo Fight Team, is nicknamed "The Machine." He won the belt from Sean O'Malley at UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC Sept. 14, 2024, and has successfully defended it 3 times, including a unanimous-decision victory over Cory Sandhagen in his most recent fight at UFC 320.

Since making his UFC debut in December 2017 and losing back-to-back fights, he has won 14 straight bouts, with 12 of those victories coming by unanimous decision. His only finishes during that span came via a Round 3 submission of O'Malley in the rematch June 7 at UFC 316 and a Round 2 KO/TKO against Marlon Moraes at UFC 266.

Yan lost his belt to Aljamain Sterling at UFC 273 in April 2022, and he has fought hard to position himself for another title shot. Since losing to Dvalishvili via unanimous decision in a Fight Night in March 2023, he has rattled off 3 straight unanimous-decision victories, including a win over Marcus McGhee last time out July 26.

Dvalishvili has a 1-inch reach advantage, while Yan has a slight 5.21-to-4.33 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. He is also a little more accurate at 60.58% on those strikes, while the Georgian fighter is slightly less at 59.45%.

In takedown average, it's all about "The Machine." He has a 6.40 takedown average mark, to just 1.58 for Yan, although the Russian-born former champ has a 48.21% takedown accuracy rate, to 37.86% for Dvalishvili. He has posted a 0.27 submission average for Dvalishvili, while Yan has a 0.12 mark in the category.

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UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Dvalishvili -425 (bet $425 to win $100) | Yan +320 (bet $100 to win $320)
  • Total rounds: 4.5 rounds (Over -425 | Under +280)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -350 | No +250)

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Yan has fought to get back into position for another title shot, but his rival Dvalishvili (-425) stands in the way.

The Georgian fighter just doesn't lose. It is going to happen one day, but that day isn't Saturday at UFC 323. The difference is his work on takedowns. Both of these fighters have rarely scored finishes lately. They're both good at wowing the judges to get the job done. The difference here is Dvalishvili's work on the ground, as he knows how to impress on takedowns, and that's a difference maker.

He has 13 straight victories -- the longest streak in the bantamweight division -- and ranks No. 1 in all-time control time at 1:32:58, while checking in at No. 2 in top position time at 54:25. He could surpass Kyung Ho Kang in that category with a strong showing in this fight.

Even so, you cannot take Dvalishvili straight up, as he costs more than 4 times your potential return. Be careful, too, since Yan has 10 knockdowns -- second-most in the division.

If you want action on the winner, it will still cost you. Playing DVALISHVILI BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (-225) will set you back more than twice your bet, so it’s probably best included in a parlay.

Over/Under

Yes (-350): Will this fight go the distance? will cost you 3½ times your potential return. The odds are very cut-and-dry here. Both fighters like to leave it in the hands of the judges, so nothing comes cheap.

The best value, based on his work getting the fight to the mat, is taking DVALISHVILI OVER 7.5 TOTAL TAKEDOWNS (-135).

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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