Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics or culture.

Republican Matt Van Epps won a Tennessee House special election on Tuesday to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July. At first glance, it’s a win for the GOP—but the margins reveal a more complicated story than a simple Republican hold.

Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by a mere 9 percentage points. In 2024, Green won the district by nearly 22 points, and President Donald Trump carried it by roughly the same margin over Democrat Kamala Harris.

In other words, the district swung 13 points toward Democrats in a year, a shift that should raise alarms for Republicans, especially in di

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