Nate Silver expresses provocative skepticism about whether the mid-decade redistricting fight will ultimately secure the Republican majority hoped for in his most recent Silver Bulletin post. A few points, I appreciate:

A reminder that partisan gerrymandering depends on predictability with respect to voter preferences, turnout, etc.:

“Cracking districts lowers the margin in nearby areas, since those voters have to be redistributed. If the math is off, or there’s a wave election , those leaner districts could flip easier than before. It might be more difficult to get to that tipping point, but I would think it puts more seats in danger.”

A reminder that this is likely to worry incumbents, even in normally uncompetitive districts:

“But more self-interestedly, redistricting can threaten

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