It’s officially economic forecast season.

As punctual as any holiday tradition, all the gurus polish their crystal balls to reveal their glossy business outlooks for the coming year.

Their work is curiously detailed, with seemingly exacting projections for numerous economic variables. These estimates look and feel authoritative, whether in fancy printed or digital form, especially when the outlook’s data includes multiple decimal places.

But for all that effort, the consensus usually goes like this: mild chance of bumpiness and otherwise a modest uptick – with a dash of blame for government on top.

Yet no degree in economics, a trusty spreadsheet or a “chief economist” title is required to make projections of future business conditions. The do-it-yourself forecast comes from living a l

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