It’s officially economic forecast season.

As punctual as any holiday tradition, all the gurus polish their crystal balls to reveal their glossy business outlooks for the coming year .

Their work is curiously detailed , with seemingly exacting projections for numerous economic variables. These estimates look and feel authoritative , whether in fancy printed or digital form, especially when the outlook’s data includes multiple decimal places.

But for all that effort, the consensus usually goes like this: mild chance of bumpiness and otherwise a modest uptick – with a dash of blame for government on top.

Yet no degree in economics, a trusty spreadsheet or a “chief economist” title is required to make projections of future business conditions. The do-it-yourself forecast comes from

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