Consumer inflation expectations held steady in November while perceptions of job security reached their strongest level of the year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday.

Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.2 percent at the one-year horizon, while holding steady at 3.0 percent at both the three-year and five-year horizons. The perceived probability of losing one’s job fell to 13.8 percent, the lowest reading in 2025.

Mean unemployment expectations—the average probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—improved slightly, decreasing 0.4 percentage points to 42.1 percent.

Taken together, these measures suggest that tariffs are no longer expected to push inflation highe

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