Rep. Jasmine Crockett

Depending on who you asked, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s decision this week to run for Senate meant one of two things.

In the eyes of some pundits and politicos, the Dallas Democrat’s nomination would spell doom for her party’s chances of winning a statewide race for the first time in over three decades. To others, she is a fighter and gifted communicator whose expand-the-electorate strategy is worth trying in a state where Democrats of all stripes and styles have failed.

In interviews with over a dozen Texas Democratic operatives, perspectives on Crockett’s strengths and liabilities — and how they would play in a general election — were varied. Crockett has said she can defeat whoever emerges from the GOP Senate primary by speaking to infrequent voters and motivating them to turn out for her. Some said her authentic communication style and well-established reputation for going toe-to-toe with Republicans can help do exactly that.

But others say she would need to attract voters who cast their ballots for President Donald Trump, in a state the president carried last November by nearly 14 percentage points — a gap that some argue cannot be bridged by high Democratic turnout alone, and that Crockett is too polarizing to achieve.

Crockett, a second-term congresswoman who inspires both fierce fandom and deep disdain, has staked her political career on her statewide viability. On Monday, the last day for candidates to file for the 2026 ballot, she officially joined the U.S. Senate primary setting up a marquee battle March 3 against state Rep. James Talarico, an Austin Democrat and progressive aspiring Presbyterian minister who, like Crockett, has assembled an impressive social media following and fundraising apparatus of his own.

At stake is not just the U.S. Senate race, but competitive seats further down the ballot for the U.S. House and the state Legislature. Though Texas Democrats are still smarting from another round of blowout defeats last year, 2026 marks the first midterm with Trump in the White House since 2018, when Beto O’Rourke’s narrow Senate loss generated a wave of down-ballot wins for Democrats.

Fiery, quick-witted and adept at generating viral moments, Crockett is well-known to the Democratic base in Texas and around the country. As Democrats have struggled with unscripted forums, finding their digital voice and authentic presentation, Crockett, a frequent presence on cable television and in long-form interviews, is regarded among the base as an invigorating and clear communicator, never robotic or boring. Operatives agree she will be a strong fundraiser and a formidable primary candidate. And her backers argue her status as a household name — including in the White House — is a strength.

“Jasmine Crockett is the most talked about member of the United States Congress, House or Senate,” Harris County Commissioner Rodney Ellis, a bastion of Houston politics, said at Crockett’s launch event. “And why are they talking about her? Because she talks back. She will expand our base. She’s a great communicator. She has shown that she can raise money.”

But critics say that while Crockett may drive disengaged Democrats to the polls, she will also inspire independents and Republicans to come out against her — a phenomenon she can ill afford in a red state. They worry that 2026 — a Trump midterm year, with a hotly contested Republican primary that will leave the eventual GOP nominee bruised and battered — is too promising an opportunity to run a candidate known for clapping back against members of the dominant party in the state.

Nancy Zdunkewicz, an Austin-based Democratic pollster unaffiliated with either campaign, said Crockett is well-known to Republican voters, many of whom have negative views of her. A successful candidate will motivate the base, persuade swing voters and demoralize Republicans, Zdunkewicz said. On the last point, she worries Crockett would have the opposite effect.

“My concern with her is that, in a year where we’re already anticipating that there’s going to be greater Democratic turnout and enthusiasm in response to this administration, as we saw in 2018 … are we giving [Republicans] an incentive to turn out, where they otherwise would’ve stayed home?” Zdunkewicz said.

Monique Alcala, a former executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, also voiced concerns about Crockett’s electability and whether she can turn out or flip enough infrequent voters needed to win statewide. Alcala said she worries that Crockett’s brand of politics — and her limited record of legislative accomplishments — may not activate those populations.

“I don't think that they're looking for somebody that is going to be a firebrand,” Alcala said. “I think that they're looking for somebody that's going to get things done. And I think that Crockett has not made that a priority of hers in Congress.”

Crockett has said she is running because she believes the opposite — that she can turn out infrequent voters and expand the electorate. She has said her internal polling reflects that belief — and insisted for weeks that she would only run statewide if the data showed a path to victory — but she has not shared any of those numbers publicly. Her campaign wants a high-turnout election, believing it would benefit her.

Asked in a Monday night CNN interview how she planned to attract Trump voters, Crockett said she planned to focus her message on affordability, and added, “I don't know that we'll necessarily convert all of Trump’s supporters. That's not our goal."

Already, Republicans — who have made no secret that they would prefer to face her over Talarico — are tying her to down-ballot Democrats running in some of the most competitive seats in the country. Sen. John Cornyn, the Texas Republican who would face Crockett in November if he survives his primary, told Semafor her bid is a “gift.” One Republican operative told The Texas Tribune that the mood yesterday in the GOP was on par with “Christmas morning.”

Crockett’s previous comments about key voting blocs in Texas will likely take center stage in Republican advertising, such as when she described some Latino voters’ anti-immigrant attitudes as a “slave mentality” in an interview with Vanity Fair a year ago. And she once criticized the right as a “violent group” that “attract[s] violent actors”.

But Crockett has remained unfazed by the doubters.

“We’re used to [people] telling us what I can’t do,” Crockett said at her campaign kickoff event Monday. “But they have no idea what Crockett’s crew will do. And so I just want to be clear for all the haters in the back, listen up real loud: We’re gonna get this thing done.”

Turnout vs. persuasion

The graveyard of failed Texas Democrats from the last 30 years is littered with statewide candidates of all stripes — moderates, progressives, big fundraisers, national figures, military and law enforcement veterans, profane celebrities, lawyers, business owners and those of all race and ethnicity.

None have won.

Numerous operatives said a successful statewide Texas race requires both turning out as many Democratic voters as possible — including infrequent voters — and persuading swing voters. Some think Crockett can do both; others concede she may juice turnout but that she may struggle with independents and Trump voters.

Katherine Fischer, director of the Democratic-aligned Texas Majority PAC, said she agrees that Crockett will be able to turn out voters who have rarely or never cast a ballot. But, she added, doing so is a heavy lift and can only succeed if the candidate also wins over swing voters.

“I believe that she will really motivate Democrats to turn out and vote,” Fischer said. “Will she have persuasive capabilities? We'll have to see.”

Rebecca Marques, who has worked in Texas Democratic politics for years, including on O’Rourke’s 2022 gubernatorial bid, said she believes in Crockett’s campaign because the Dallas Democrat is stylistically attractive to infrequent Democratic voters and swing voters, many of whom are younger, Latino or Asian. Crockett, she said, comes off as a fighter who speaks to people’s frustrations, like O’Rourke and, paradoxically, Trump.

“I actually think her arguments and the way she speaks is closer [to those voters],” Marques said. “She has an easier time bridging how she campaigns and speaks to that unlikely voter base and the swing voters we think we could peel off in a general — Latinos, Asians, maybe poor young white folks — that are not ideologically in one camp or another, and are most focused on their economic ability.”

Marques also said she does not think Crockett would uniquely whip up Republican turnout if she wins the nomination. She believes the right is already fired up because of their dramatic Republican primary and the possibility that Attorney General Ken Paxton — a GOP firebrand who is popular among the base and hopes to unseat Cornyn in March — may be the nominee.

Some strategists dismissed Crockett’s chances outright, noting that she never needed crossover appeal with Republicans to win her solidly Democratic districts in the Texas House and Congress. Talarico, by contrast, flipped a state House seat in 2018 before switching to a safer blue seat in Austin for the 2022 cycle after his district was made redder through redistricting.

“This is not a base mobilization election — Trump carried Texas by 14 points — it’s about who can create a big enough coalition to win,” Eric Koch, a Democratic strategist who has done campaign work in Texas, said via text. “Talarico can do that, Crockett can’t.”

Matt Angle, a longtime Texas Democratic operative and founder of the Lone Star Project, said Crockett’s biggest asset is her ability to communicate effectively with voters, while her biggest challenge will be coming across as a Texas Democrat rather than a national Democrat, given her massive profile.

“She unquestionably has communication skills and excites our base in a way that’s absolutely necessary,” Angle said. “The challenge for her is to build beyond that. Can she reach out to some people who have dismissed Democrats, either because they just don’t think they’re going to win, or because they don’t think they talk to them about the right issues?”

Down-ballot races

The Democrat who came closest to winning a statewide race in Texas this century was O’Rourke, who lost by less than 3 percentage points in 2018, reviving dormant Democratic dreams of a blue Texas.

Though O’Rourke lost, one of his lasting legacies is the array of down-ballot races Democrats won that cycle, in part by relying on the high turnout he generated through motivating infrequent voters. Riding the blue wave, Democrats flipped two U.S. House seats, two Texas Senate seats and 12 state House seats.

Whoever emerges as next year’s Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate will carry the same responsibility of helping down-ballot Democrats in tough races — or, at the very least, not harming their prospects.

Republicans see Crockett as a useful liability to be pinned on Democrats whose seats they are targeting in 2026, including the two South Texas congressional districts represented by U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen. Democrats, meanwhile, are targeting U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Edinburg, who also represents the region, making the southern part of the state a critical battleground for control of the House.

The National Republican Campaign Committee — the House GOP’s campaign arm — has already sought to tie Gonzalez to Crockett, as has one of his prospective GOP opponents, Eric Flores. Gonzalez is running for reelection to a district that Trump would have carried by 10 points, after Republicans in the state Legislature redrew the boundaries over the summer to be more favorable for the GOP.

“Radical Jasmine Crockett is electoral kryptonite and now vulnerable Texas Democrats are stuck sharing a ticket with her,” NRCC spokesperson Reilly Richardson said. “Whether they cave and endorse her before the primary or wait until she’s officially coronated as Democrats’ next statewide loser, her toxic brand will hurt Texas Democrats down the ballot next year.”

The NRCC’s internal polling, shared with The Texas Tribune, found that Crockett’s image was underwater in a summer survey of 50 battleground districts across the country, though the group did not disclose her exact margin. Her name identification was 75%.

Marques said Crockett was a frequently requested surrogate for South Texas stops on O’Rourke’s 2022 campaign. Rather than being a drag, she believes Crockett can help juice turnout, allowing vulnerable Democrats to take advantage of that while maintaining distinct political brands.

Cameron County Democratic Chair Jared Hockema runs the local party in a Rio Grande Valley county that voted for Trump last year, shifting 10 percentage points to the right and voting for a Republican presidential nominee for only the third time since 1980. Hockema said he does not worry about negative down-ballot impact from either Senate nominee; if anything, he said the primary will excite people.

“I never subscribed to the idea that you’ve got to be careful what you talk about,” Hockema said. “That's why we're in the place we are. We need to be courageous to talk about the issues that matter to people. And both of those folks do that.”

This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.