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In 2018 U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke broke state fundraising records and sparked national attention with his campaign for a Texas Senate seat. The polls never had him as the favorite—FiveThirtyEight gave him a 23 percent chance by Election Day—but it was noteworthy that in Texas a Democrat was even close. Bolstered by the notoriously unlikable Ted Cruz and a national “blue wave,” O’Rourke lost by only 2.6 points. Not bad for an anti-gun Democrat in a seemingly deep-red state.

In hindsight, O’Rourke’s narrow loss was actually the cruelest thing he could’ve done to the Democratic Party. It created a misleading impression that a long-dreamed-of blue Texas was right arou

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