Don't worry about the Federal Reserve announcing a rate cut in a few hours. A quarter-point reduction is baked into the market now. The Fed's 2026 rate outlook is a different story. In September, when the Fed last issued its quarterly " summary of economic projections ," the central bank projected only one rate cut in 2026. The central bank's so-called dot plot , which anonymously shows 19 individual members' expectations, indicated a median estimate of 3.4% for the federal funds rate — currently 3.75% to 4% — at the end of next year. As it stands, that outlook won't get more favorable for the stock market, according to Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. "We think forward guidance will pivot in a neutral-to-hawkish direction as the Fed goes on hold for at least the first few meetings of 2

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