There’s something often prized above star power in baseball. It lies at the heart of the sport’s superstitions. It’s what a hitter aims for while drilling their swing, and what a pitcher practices with each wind-up. At the end of a lengthy 162-game regular season, it also tends to determine a player or team’s statistical success: consistency.

From 2022-2024, Clay Holmes was the model of a consistent reliever. Each season, he recorded an ERA+ between 129 and 155, a K/9 rate between 9.2 and 10.1, a BB/9 rate between 2.8 and 3.3, and most notably an innings pitched total fluctuating only between 63.0 and 63.2. So when Holmes signed with the Mets last December and began preparing for the 2025 season as a starting pitcher, doubt naturally crept up from corners of the baseball world.

Did Holme

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