Dec 7, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Houston Texans cornerback Kamari Lassiter (4) intercepts a pass intended for Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Hollywood Brown (5) during the fourth quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Oct 26, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Troy Franklin (11) celebrates with wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) and quarterback Bo Nix (10) after scoring a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys in the fourth quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Week 15 is an opportunity. Multiple division leaders are underdogs at home. If you believe in the New England Patriots or Denver Broncos (or, subsequently, think the Kansas City Chiefs are not yet done crumbling), there are multiple chances to ride good teams to healthy payouts.

Both New England and Denver can lock down playoff spots with big wins Sunday, but it won't be easy. Drake Maye will take on a Bills team whose only path to a sixth straight AFC East title is to win in Foxborough. The Broncos' defense will square off with the league's most efficient offense and a defense that just shut down a budding second-year passer (Caleb Williams) when it mattered most.

Those two teams are key to this week's bets, but they aren't alone. Our resident expert the Rhode Island Scumbag is coming off a steady six-unit profit over the last four weeks and finally in a spot to be a Patriots homer without fear of financial ruin. That's one of his four bets this week -- and one of mine as well.

We'll get there. But first, if you're looking for some waiver wire gems who can carry your fantasy team to playoff glory, we've got you covered.

Let's get on to the bets. All Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes below.

Here we are after posting another 3-1 week for a neat two-unit profit. Cleveland was the big letdown at home that prevented us from having our first perfect slate this season. With time running out, we have still yet to nail all our picks in a given week. Here's hoping we fix that, although value is harder to come by this time of year with bookmakers seemingly using crystal balls to make precise lines.

Scumbag Lock of the Week I: Houston Texans (-9.5) vs Arizona Cardinals (one unit)

Two score spreads aren’t my favorite, but in this case it's completely warranted. Houston just went into a hostile environment in Kansas City and shell shocked the Chiefs en route to a 10-point victory -- something many people did not see coming (including the OG Rhody Scumbag I replaced, who declared a Patrick Mahomes win by 20).

Arizona has been a plucky opponent since the Brissett takeover, but this Houston defense is downright scary. The journeyman QB could be running for his life all afternoon. C.J. Stroud has shown that he can do enough with the offense to give Houston a lead the defense won’t relinquish. The Texans win handily here.

Scumbag Lock of the Week II: New England Patriots (+1.5) vs Buffalo Bills (one unit)

This is most likely going to come off as a complete homer take, but I have no issue owning it. This is basically a pick-em game with the minuscule spread, so I’m banking on the Pats winning outright at Foxboro.

Yes, I know New England's schedule hasn’t been a murder’s row of the NFL elite, but the Pats have gone out and taken care of business week in and week out. They have been great against the run this year, which plays into negating the Bills’ greatest offensive strength. I believe offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can dial up an offensive game plan that takes advantage of the Bills’ defensive shortcomings.

Of course, Josh Allen is the X-factor here. Still, I’ll put my faith in Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye once again leading the way in another tight victory on home soil.

Scumbag Lock of the Week III: Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) vs Baltimore Ravens (one unit)

The Bengals had their way with the Ravens in Joe Burrow’s return on Thanksgiving night. They meet again after both teams lost matchups last week, with the Bengals falling to the Bills on the road in a tight one, and the Ravens doing the same against the Steelers.

Neither team is playing particularly good defense at the moment, which leads me to make my selection based on the offenses. Joe Burrow has his offense humming as expected since his return, and Lamar Jackson… doesn’t. Baltimore’s offense is sporadic at best.

Yes, the Bengals are still capable of being gashed by tight ends and the Ravens love to lean on theirs. However, Baltimore’s defense just let Aaron Rodgers turn back the clock. Prime Joe Burrow should have no problem leading the way here, leading to Baltimore’s playoff hopes shriveling.

Scumbag Lock of the Week IV: Green Bay Packers (-2) at Denver Broncos (one unit)

Denver is undefeated at home this season and hasn’t lost since September. Now they are underdogs at home, and I’m not interested. So, what gives?

Toyotathon Jordan Love. That’s what.

For some reason, Green Bay sees glorious deals on Highlanders and Tundras and go bonkers. Denver has also been somewhat inconsistent coming out of their bye, failing to cover the spread against the Commanders or Raiders (albeit with a garbage cover due to the last second field goal). Denver has had some miraculous fourth quarter comebacks in various spots this year. I think their luck runs out this week when Toyotathon Love comes to town. I’m predicting the Broncos fail to cover for the third consecutive week.

  • Last week: 3-1, +2 units
  • Season to date: 33-25 (.569), +7.4 units

My non-Scumbag bets: Los Angeles Chargers +6 at the Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots +1.5 vs. the Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos +2 vs. the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants -1.5 vs. the Washington Commanders (one unit each)

The Chargers may be due for a letdown -- they celebrated a sloppy win over the Eagles a bit too hard for my liking. But the Chiefs are spiraling. A wounded animal may be the most dangerous, but there are diminishing returns there. Last week was, for most intents and purposes, a must-win game to keep the team's playoff hopes alive. Kansas City still managed to make bad decisions and was haunted by sloppy mistakes to drop to 6-7.

The Chiefs' modest pressure rate suggests they won't be able to attack LA's glowing weakness at the tackle positions. Even if they can, Omarion Hampton's return from injury provides an above-average run platoon against the league's 19th-ranked rush defense. I don't know that this will result in a Chargers win, but it feels like a game that will come down to the wire -- and give us solid value on Los Angeles getting four points, let alone the six it's climbed to over the course of the week.

The Patriots already proved they can absorb Josh Allen's output and force the Bills' skill players to beat them thanks to a 23-20 victory in Orchard Park earlier this year. Allen is dealing right now, but roasting Cincinnati's depleted defense is a much easier task than putting boots to New England's top 10 unit. Adding to the challenge? Mike Vrabel is 6-0 as a head coach coming off a bye. Sure, lots of those wins were over mediocre Jaguars and Colts teams, but still.

Jayden Daniels' absence didn't move the Commanders-Giants line all that much, which makes sense -- the reigning rookie of the year has been going through it in 2025. What doesn't make sense is that New York isn't even a field goal favorite at home. I understand things are bad but... Washington just got beat 31-0 by the NFL's worst starting quarterback! The Commanders have the NFL's worst passing defense and how get the chance to build false hope as the foundation of a division rival's franchise quarterback. Jaxson Dart is going to destroy some fantasy playoff matchups on Sunday.

  • Last week: 1-2, -1 unit
  • Season to date: 29-26-1 (.527), +6.6 units

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Best NFL Bets, Week 15: A Toyotathon Packers-Broncos debate

Reporting by Christian D'Andrea, For The Win / For The Win

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