Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the seventh inning at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

The Houston Astros (32-27) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (22-38) open a 3-game set Tuesday. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Astros vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Pirates won 2-1 last year

The Astros split 4 games with the Tampa Bay Rays in Houston, wrapping up the set with a 1-0 win as -155 favorites Sunday with the Under (7.5) cashing. SP Hunter Brown (win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 5 K) became the first pitcher to reach 8 wins Sunday, while 1B Christian Walker drove in Houston’s only run with an RBI single in the first inning.

The Pirates dropped 2 of 3 games at the San Diego Padres, losing 6-4 as +133 underdogs in the Sunday finale with the Over (8.5) hitting. Pittsburgh held an 83.9% win probability, according to ESPN Analytics, leading 4-1 with 1 out in the bottom of the sixth inning Sunday -- but was outscored 5-0 the rest of the way.

Astros at Pirates projected starters

RHP Lance McCullers Jr. vs. RHP Paul Skenes

McCullers (0-1, 5.89 ERA) makes his sixth start. He has allowed 20 hits and 11 walks with 26 K's through 18 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 12 K in 5-3 home victory vs. A's Wednesday
  • 2025 road stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (7 2/3 IP), 7 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 2 starts
  • Missed 2023 and 2024 seasons due to injuries in his pitching arm
  • Has never faced Pirates

Skenes (4-5, 2.15 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 75 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 10-1 victory at Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday
  • 2025 home stats: 1-3, 3.60 ERA (30 IP, 12 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 5 starts
  • Career vs. Astros: 1 road start (July 29, 2024), no-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 5-3 victory

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Astros at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Pirates -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-175) | Pirates -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Astros at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 5, Astros 4

Moneyline

PITTSBURGH (-160) has won 2 of its last 3 home games. The Pirates also have a significant edge on the mound, with Skenes allowing just 3 runs over 26 2/3 innings in his last 4 starts.

While McCullers has shown improvement since a disastrous May 10 start against the Cincinnati Reds -- when he allowed 7 runs and was pulled in the first inning -- he has still given up 2 or more earned runs in each of his last 2 starts.

BET PIRATES (-160).

Run line/Against the spread

The Pirates -1.5 (+145) are too risky to bet on the run line, while the Astros +1.5 (-175) are too expensive to take in this spot against Skenes.

PASS on the run line.

Over/Under

Pittsburgh has scored 5 or more runs in 6 of its last 10 games, going 6-4 to the Over. However, Houston has been cold at the plate, putting up 3 or fewer runs in 4 straight games, going 2-2 O/U.

With the total set at 7.5, this one’s a toss-up. The lean is to the Over, but Houston's struggling offense against Skenes is enough of a red flag to pass on making it an official play.

LEAN OVER 7.5 (+100).

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Corey Scott, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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