Republicans may soon be quoting the “totally unreliable” Congressional Budget Office (CBO), after new data shows President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could help to shrink US deficits.
The CBO released data on Wednesday claiming Trump’s tariffs will cut the US fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion.
Bloomberg reports, this “estimate could provide a talking point for Republicans who have argued the tariffs could help offset the cost of a multi-trillion-dollar spending bill under negotiation in Congress.”
In recent days, Republicans have hammered the CBO because they claim the House spending bill (aka the “big, beautiful bill") will add $3.8 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) told Fox News last week that the office is “historically, totally unreliable. It's run by Democrats. 84 percent of the number-crunchers over there are donors to big Democrats. They don't have their best interests in mind, and they've always been off."
The new data from the CBO was requested by Democratic congressional leaders. Along with the data, Phillip Swagel, who is head of the CBO, said the office’s “estimates are subject to significant uncertainty.”
Bloomberg said this “uncertainty” derives from “how [the Trump administration] conducts its tariff policies.”
Swagel later added, “Moreover, because the United States has implemented no increases in tariffs of this size in many decades, there is little relevant empirical evidence on their effects.”
The $2.8 trillion cut to the deficit is based off of Trump’s tariffs, which went into effect in May.
Paraphrasing the CBO letter, Bloomberg noted the “tariffs would pose a modest hit to economic growth, reducing the level of GDP by 0.6% by 2035.”
They also concluded the tariffs would add to inflation until next year. “After 2026, the tariffs will not have additional significant effects on prices,” Swagel said.