Each night, swarms of long-range Russian drones invade Ukrainian airspace, buzzing for hours and terrorizing civilians. These drones, numbering in the hundreds, target locations from the industrial east to areas near the western border with Poland. Recent reports indicate that Russia is now deploying more drones in a single night than it did during entire months in 2024. On July 8, a record was set when over 700 drones were launched, with some experts predicting that this number could soon exceed 1,000 daily.

This surge in drone activity coincides with U.S. President Donald Trump's ultimatum to Russia, demanding a ceasefire by early September or face new sanctions. Analysts believe Moscow will use this period to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine. Russia has significantly ramped up its drone production, transitioning from initially importing Shahed drones from Iran to enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities. The Russian Defense Ministry has announced plans to establish a separate military branch dedicated to drone operations, along with a center focused on improving drone tactics and training.

Modifications to the Iranian Shahed drones have been made to increase their altitude and make them more difficult to intercept, according to military analysts and bloggers. These changes include enhancements to resist jamming and the ability to carry powerful thermobaric warheads. Some drones are reportedly equipped with artificial intelligence for autonomous operation. The original Shahed and its Russian counterpart, known as Geran, can reach speeds of just over 110 mph, with a faster jet version in development.

The Institute for the Study of War has noted that Russia's collaboration with China has enabled it to circumvent Western sanctions on electronic components necessary for drone production. Ukrainian military intelligence estimates that up to 65% of the components for Geran drones are sourced from China, a claim that Beijing denies. Production of these drones began at a factory in Alabuga, Tatarstan, and later expanded to a facility in Udmurtia, west of the Ural Mountains. Despite Ukraine's attempts to target these factories with drone strikes, production has continued unabated.

A recent report from state-run Zvezda TV described the Alabuga factory as the largest attack drone manufacturing plant in the world. "It’s a war of drones. We are ready for it," said Timur Shagivaleyev, the plant director, who emphasized that the facility produces all necessary components, including engines and electronics, and has its own training school.

The Russian military has refined its tactics, increasingly deploying decoy drones called Gerbera to confuse Ukrainian defenses. By overwhelming air defenses with large numbers of drones, Russia aims to prevent Ukraine from targeting more expensive cruise and ballistic missiles, which are often used in conjunction with drone strikes against critical infrastructure.

Former Russian Defense Ministry press officer Mikhail Zvinchuk noted that the military has learned to concentrate on specific targets to maximize impact. "Our defense industries’ output allows massive strikes on practically a daily basis without the need for breaks to accumulate the necessary resources," said military blogger Alexander Kots.

In response, Ukraine has mobilized teams armed with machine guns to counter the drones, aiming to conserve costly Western-supplied air defense missiles. The country is also developing interceptor drones and increasing production, but the rising frequency of Russian attacks is putting pressure on its defenses.

Despite facing international sanctions and economic challenges, Russia's military spending has increased by 3.4% this year, amounting to approximately $200 billion. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that over 1.5 million drones of various types were delivered to the military last year. Since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, Russia has launched more than 28,000 Shahed and Geran drones, with 10% of that total fired in just the last month.

While ballistic and cruise missiles are more powerful, they are also significantly more expensive and limited in quantity. In contrast, a Geran drone costs only tens of thousands of dollars, making it a cost-effective option for Russia's military strategy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia aims to intimidate the Ukrainian populace, with plans to launch between 700 and 1,000 drones daily. German Maj. Gen. Christian Freuding recently indicated that Russia is working towards a capability of launching 2,000 drones in a single attack.

On the extensive front line, short-range attack drones have become increasingly prevalent, quickly identifying and targeting military assets within a 10-kilometer kill zone. Initially, Russian drone units operated independently, often relying on equipment funded by private donations. However, as drone availability increased, the military consolidated these units under a single command last fall. President Putin has supported the establishment of a new military branch, the Unmanned Systems Troops, to focus on drone warfare.

Russia is also investing in battlefield drones that utilize fiber optic cables, which are resistant to jamming and have an extended operational range. The Rubicon center has been created to train drone operators and develop effective tactics. Military expert Michael Kofman noted that these advancements pose new challenges for Ukraine, requiring it to enhance its defensive strategies significantly.