OTTAWA — Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is expected to win the upcoming Battle River—Crowfoot byelection, according to Canada’s leading election forecaster. Philippe J. Fournier, founder of the election forecasting site 338Canada, stated that Poilievre is a strong favorite, but the more intriguing question is the margin of victory.

“I just don’t see Poilievre losing this, or even coming close to losing this,” Fournier said. He noted that historically, Conservative candidates in this riding have received between 70 and 80 percent of the vote. Current projections from 338Canada estimate that Poilievre will secure between 65 and 81 percent of the popular vote in the byelection scheduled for August 18.

Early voting begins Friday and continues through Monday. The previous Conservative representative, Damien Kurek, won a significant 83 percent of the vote in the April federal election before stepping down to allow Poilievre to run.

Fournier indicated that the forecasting model may actually underestimate Poilievre’s support. “If I had to bet, I would say that Poilievre will probably beat my projection,” he said. He also mentioned that the New Democratic Party (NDP) is projected to receive low single-digit support, which typically declines in byelections where they are not competitive.

Despite the favorable outlook, Fournier cautioned that Poilievre is unlikely to match Kurek’s previous performance. “The data I have access to so far says easy win for Mr. Poilievre, most likely below Mr. Kurek,” he added.

The byelection will feature a record 214 candidates, a result of efforts by the Longest Ballot Committee, which advocates for electoral reform. Fournier estimates that independent candidates could receive between 4 and 18 percent of the vote. He expressed uncertainty about how each of the independent candidates will perform, given the large number.

Bonnie Critchley, an independent candidate focused on local issues, is seen as a potential disruptor to Poilievre’s vote share. “If Ms. Critchley really connects and gets 15 percent, the Liberals get 10, suddenly you have a 25 percent or more who aren’t voting Conservative,” Fournier explained. Critchley, a retired Canadian Forces master corporal and local horse breeder, has gained attention for her campaign, which emphasizes local representation. She recently received an endorsement from Arlene Dickinson, a prominent figure from the television show Dragons’ Den.

Fournier questioned whether voters in Battle River—Crowfoot are influenced by opinions from Ottawa regarding Critchley. He also suggested that a less-than-stellar performance by Poilievre would not significantly impact his leadership. “If he gets 50 percent or 75 percent there’s no real difference … we’ll all have forgotten about it by the time he takes his seat in September,” he said.

Poilievre is set to face a leadership review at the Conservative Party’s convention in Calgary in January.