By Paul Cobler and Edison Wu, The Texas Tribune.

The all-girls Christian summer camp where 27 people, most of them children, were swept away and killed by the July 4 flooding in Kerr County was just one of 13 summer camps along the Guadalupe River built on land prone to flooding.

The two Camp Mystic cabins where most of the flood victims were sleeping are in the Guadalupe River floodway, an area along waterways considered to be the most hazardous during a flood. Many of Mystic’s other buildings are located in the 100-year floodplain, considered to be less hazardous than a floodway but still prone to flooding during a severe storm.

Twelve other summer camps along the river in Kerr and Kendall counties are at least partially built on land within the 100-year floodplain, according to a Texas Tribune analysis of flood and property maps along the Guadalupe River.

“Unfortunately, I'm not surprised,” said Sarah Pralle, a Syracuse University associate professor who studies environmental policy. “We overbuild in flood zones everywhere across the country … but with camps it's especially worrisome. You're not just putting yourself at risk, you're putting these children at risk who you're supposed to be looking out for their safety.”

Five summer camps, including Mystic, have at least one-third of their camp structures located in the 100-year floodplain. That includes Heart O’ the Hills Camp in Hunt, where no campers were present but the camp’s longtime director was killed in the flooding.

Camp Capers in Waring, Camp Stewart for Boys in Hunt and Camp Waldemar in Hunt also have at least a third of their structures located in the 100-year floodplain.

The owner of Camp Waldemar, Meg Clark, testified before a legislative committee last week that all of its cabins are located on a bluff above the floodplain, allowing the camp to shelter in place until the river receded.

The Tribune analyzed Federal Emergency Management Agency maps used to determine flood risk for the National Flood Insurance Program. The maps help determine insurance rates for structures located within them and are often used by local governments to regulate new construction in the floodplain.

However, experts say the maps underestimate the risk posed. The modeling used to map 100-year floodplains, which have a 1% chance of flooding in any given year, is out of date because it is based on rainfall totals that have increased in recent decades as the climate warms and the warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture.

Satellite imagery reviewed by the Tribune shows the number of structures in the floodplain but doesn’t indicate the function of every structure.

The eight other summer camps with at least one-third of their structures located in the 100-year floodplain include:

  • Presbyterian Mo-Ranch Assembly in Hunt
  • Bear Creek Scout Camp in Hunt
  • Camp La Junta in Hunt
  • Camp Rio Vista for Boys in Ingram
  • Camp Sierra Vista for Girls in Ingram
  • Camp Honey Creek For Girls in Hunt
  • Kickapoo Kamp for Girls in Kerrville
  • Hermann Sons Life Camp-Riverside in Comfort

Camp La Junta evacuated all of its campers during the flooding and saw no injuries or deaths, according to a Facebook post .

Camps Rio Vista and Sierra Vista, which are owned and operated jointly, reported "significant" damage to the camps on social media.

A representative for Hermann Sons Life Camp-Riverside said the camp’s two buildings located in the floodplain were vacant but declined to comment further.

The 12 other camps with structures located within the floodplain did not respond to or declined requests to comment for this article.

Most camps are “grandfathered” out of current flood zone rules

How are so many summer camp structures located in the most flood-prone areas along the river?

Nearly all of the 13 camps are located outside of city limits. In Texas, county governments have no authority to implement zoning rules that could limit construction within the 100-year floodplain.

And many of these camps were built before the flood modeling was done and the risks were fully understood. This also allows them to be “grandfathered” out of any newer regulations for properties in the floodplain, and to obtain lower flood insurance rates. Only two of the 13 camps with property in the flood plain are not grandfathered.

Buildings that are significantly damaged by flooding typically lose that status once they are repaired or rebuilt.

Some guardrails exist when it comes to building on flood plains. For property owners in flood-prone areas to tap federal flood insurance, local governments have to enact minimum building standards set by the federal government. Property owners can also purchase private flood insurance, but it is typically more expensive.

Property owners can also contest FEMA floodplain designations to avoid the increased regulation and higher flood insurance rates that come with new construction in flood-prone areas. Camp Mystic, which opened in 1926 and has grandfathered status, successfully petitioned FEMA in 2013, 2019 and 2020 to remove some of its buildings from the 100-year flood map ahead of a camp expansion.

Many flood maps are out of date and don’t give a true picture of the flood risk, Pralle said.

Higher temperatures speed up evaporation from oceans and other bodies of water, and warmer air can hold more moisture, leading to more intense and frequent storms, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Upward of 12 inches of rain fell in some areas of Hill Country on the morning of July 4.

And development replaces water-aborbing vegetation with impermeable surfaces like streets and rooftops that increase runoff into streams and rivers.

Flood maps are “not really showing you the accurate risk, so you would think camps would go the extra mile to be extra careful knowing the floodwaters could very likely go far beyond those lines,” Pralle said. “Risks don't stop when they hit a line on a map, so the idea that it's somehow less risky if you're outside the flood zone is not true.”

Lawmaker weigh bills on disaster, evacuation plans for camps

Two special legislative committees appointed to come up with proposals in response to the July 4 weekend floods have mainly focused on disaster response rather than floodplain building regulations.

The House committee passed House Bill 19, which would require any property with cabins or designated spaces for camping to develop a "flood disaster plan." The bill doesn't stipulate what exactly the plan has to include, leaving that up to the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

Another bill would require all campgrounds in floodplains to have emergency evacuation plans that they would have to follow anytime the National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning. It would also require campground cabins to have ladders so people could climb onto rooftops as a last resort.

Texas Floodplain Management Association Executive Director Christopher Steubing said summer camps naturally want to be located near bodies of water, and the best way to prevent disaster in these areas is by educating property owners and visitors about flood risks. Better education on the risks would allow for better planning to make sure campers and camp staff can respond quickly in the event of a flood, Steubing said.

“If you’re going to be responsible for these lives that are coming in, and I think you see the Legislature starting to move in this direction, you’ve got to have certain things in place, and they’ve got to be practiced,” Steubing said.

“There was no warning”

Camp CAMP in Center Point, which serves children and adults with developmental, behavioral and physical disabilities, was built on a ridge 90 feet above the Guadalupe River, where campers swim, canoe and do other recreational activities, but the camp intentionally avoided building permanent structures along the riverbank, said Brandon Briery, the camp’s chief operating officer.

“With the most recent flood, there was no warning,” Briery said. “We wouldn't have known to get things to higher ground, and would have just lost anything of any substance that was down there.”

The camp did lose a shed that stored river recreation equipment, along with several portable toilets for campers, Briery said. A pavilion constructed by local Eagle Scouts managed to survive the force of the water, Briery added.

Better warning systems and tighter government regulations are needed, Briery said, and camps need to understand the risks for their individual properties and act accordingly.

“I think that every organization, every property owner, has to make decisions for themselves,” Briery said. “Because of how we're situated and how we utilize things, we mitigate a lot of risk. But I can't really say for other camps what they should be doing. They have to make their decisions on their risk.”

The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans and engages with them about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.