Donald Trump has never lacked confidence. ‘I’m here to get the thing over with,’ he said last week when announcing the meeting with Vladimir Putin. ‘President Putin, I believe, wants to see peace. And Zelensky wants to see peace. Now, President Zelensky has to get… everything he needs, because he’s going to have to get ready to sign something.’

To many, that sounded like a variation on Trump’s much repeated election claim that he would end the Ukraine war in 24 hours: a grandiose statement that will probably bear little if any fruit this week. Indeed, the smart money is on the Alaska summit resulting in claims of a ‘historic breakthrough’, which will change little on the front lines.

One of the challenges when assessing Trump’s administration has been how to separate the signal from the

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