OTTAWA—The safest assumption in Canadian politics right now is that Pierre Poilievre is going to win Monday’s federal byelection in Battle River—Crowfoot.

In interviews this week with Conservative insiders, in most every pundit’s analysis, and in the strategizing of politicos of all stripes, it’s taken as a given: the Tory leader will be back in the House of Commons for the fall sitting of Parliament. After all, since he lost in April’s general election the riding he represented on Ottawa’s suburban-rural fringe for 20 years, Poilievre is now running in a sprawling Alberta constituency that polling expert Éric Grenier has deemed “one of the safest Conservative seats in all of Canada.” His short-lived parliamentary exile is almost certainly coming to an end.

With that settled, the real

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