Hurricane Erin has weakened to a Category 3 storm, with maximum winds of 125 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center's 5 a.m. ET update. Despite this downgrade, Erin remains a significant hurricane. The next update is scheduled for 8 a.m. ET.
The weakening is expected to be temporary. Erin is anticipated to re-intensify after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, a natural process that can briefly weaken hurricanes before they regain strength. As of the latest report, Erin is located approximately 140 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and about 330 miles east-southeast of Grand Turk Island. The storm is moving west-northwest at 14 mph.
Erin's outer bands are currently affecting Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Flash flood warnings are in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, where radar estimates indicate that 3 to 6 inches of rain have fallen over St. John and St. Thomas. Northern Puerto Rico has reported between 2 to 4 inches of rain. Flood watches are expected to remain in effect for both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands until Monday morning. Isolated areas may see storm totals of 6 to 8 inches, which could lead to rapid flooding, landslides, and mudslides.
As Erin continues its west-southwest movement on Sunday, the storm's outer bands will bring rain and gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Conditions are expected to improve later in the afternoon for the U.S. Virgin Islands and by tonight for Puerto Rico.
Tropical storm warnings are currently in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands, as Erin's outer bands are expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds to the region. Additionally, tropical storm watches are in place for the southeast Bahamas.
Erin is forecasted to slow down and begin turning north later today into the early part of the week. The storm's projected path remains consistent with previous forecasts, influenced by the weakening Bermuda High and an incoming cold front along the East Coast. Weather models indicate that Erin will steer between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast, minimizing direct impacts on the mainland.
As Erin moves northward, dangerous surf and rip currents are anticipated along the U.S. eastern coastline, from Florida's Space Coast to coastal New England. The storm's increasing size is expected to generate larger wave action. Coastal areas from the Carolinas to possibly the Northeast could see waves exceeding 8 to 12 feet by Thursday, posing risks of dangerous surf and significant beach erosion that may threaten beachfront properties.