OTTAWA — Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is among 214 candidates vying for a seat in the Alberta byelection, a contest he did not initially plan to enter. The vote in the Battle River—Crowfoot riding on Monday is expected to be a straightforward win for Poilievre, despite the crowded ballot. However, the decision to spend his summer campaigning in rural Alberta comes with significant costs, particularly as he prepares to confront Prime Minister Mark Carney during question period when the House of Commons reconvenes in September.

Eight months ago, polls indicated that the Conservatives were poised to form the government. Instead, Poilievre lost his seat in the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton, and his party suffered a significant defeat against Carney’s Liberals. Now, Poilievre is on a challenging, multi-year path to regain a chance at leading the country.

Despite the difficulties he has faced, Conservative insiders believe that while the road to victory is fraught with obstacles, it is not impossible. Anthony Koch, a former spokesman for Poilievre, emphasized the need for the party to recognize the necessity of change and to focus on key issues that resonate with voters. "We have to move on from the last election," he stated.

Following the byelection, Poilievre will shift his focus to the Conservative leadership review, which will take place during a national policy convention in Calgary at the end of January. A secret ballot vote on the party leader after a fourth consecutive general election loss can often lead to contention. However, many party sources do not foresee significant challenges to Poilievre’s leadership, citing his continued popularity within the party and the absence of any active challengers.

"There’s no clear competitors," noted one Conservative source familiar with party dynamics. Nonetheless, some party members express concern that treating the leadership review as an afterthought could be detrimental. They point out that the party was leading by as much as 24 percentage points before the April election, suggesting that a healthy debate about leadership is necessary.

While some believe Poilievre contributed to the party's electoral struggles, the lack of a formidable challenger may mean that the primary focus of the leadership review will be on the level of support he receives. Analysts suggest that anything below 65 or 70 percent could raise questions about his leadership, but most expect him to retain his position.

Looking ahead, Poilievre faces the daunting task of winning over Canadians in the next federal election. For the Conservatives to break the Liberals' streak of four consecutive victories, several factors must align. The Carney government must struggle with key issues such as housing and the economy, and there may need to be a resurgence of the New Democratic Party or another left-leaning party to siphon votes from the Liberals.

Additionally, Poilievre and his team must navigate the complexities of adjusting their strategies and personal approaches. The question remains whether Poilievre is willing to change or if he should even attempt to do so. While he has a solid base of support within the party, some Conservatives believe that his consistency and authenticity as a staunch conservative are key to his appeal.

In a recent press conference, Poilievre reiterated the party's mission to be a "government in waiting" and acknowledged the need to expand support to form a government. "Forty-one percent might not be enough in the future," he said, indicating an awareness of the changing electoral landscape.

Party insiders report that Poilievre has been actively engaging with party loyalists to gather feedback on the recent election. Supporters like Rick Perkins, a former Nova Scotia MP, believe that the time away from Parliament has allowed Poilievre to reflect and reconnect with grassroots supporters.

In his public appearances since the April election, Poilievre has shown signs of adopting a more conciliatory tone. His recent interview on a national radio program marked a shift from previous avoidance of the media. He acknowledged the challenges faced by the Carney government in trade negotiations, stating, "I don’t blame him entirely for that. Obviously, he’s dealing with some unfair treatment by the Americans."

This shift in approach may indicate Poilievre's recognition of the need to broaden his appeal. However, some party members remain skeptical about his willingness to change. Ginny Roth, a former communications director for Poilievre, suggested that the traits some view as weaknesses are also his strengths, contributing to his significant following.

The debate over Poilievre's leadership continues, with some questioning whether he is the right person to lead the party. Critics argue that his perceived arrogance and inability to connect with a broader electorate could hinder the party's chances in future elections. As the Conservative Party prepares for the upcoming byelection and leadership review, the path forward for Poilievre remains uncertain.