Draft day in fantasy football isn’t just about picking stars. It’s about managing risk. Talent and stats matter, but injuries, aging and opportunity shifts can derail a player’s season. Just ask anyone who didn’t follow our advice on Christian McCaffrey last season.

To help you navigate that uncertainty, we’ve analyzed the top 100 names on draft boards through the lens of those three key risk factors. Keep in mind, though, that things move fast. Always check the latest reports before locking in your picks.

Perhaps the biggest risk in this year’s fantasy draft is Philadelphia Eagles star running back Saquon Barkley. He’s being selected as a top-10 overall pick and one of the first three running backs off the board on the strength of his outstanding 2024, but the data screams caution.

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