I've been looking forward to this column for months. On Monday, I published my annual look at the five teams most likely to improve in the upcoming NFL season. In the years I've been writing that column, those teams have improved 31 of 38 times, or more than 81% of the time.

Each year, I also break down the teams that are most likely to decline. This column has had a virtually identical success rate; after last year, it's 30 for 38. It went 3-2 last year , correctly pegging the Ravens (who dropped from 13-4 to 12-5), Giants (6-11 to 3-14) and Browns (11-6 to 3-14) as teams that would lose more games.

The two that defied my predictions will stick in my mind for a while. The Steelers defied the odds again, maintaining their 10-7 record. They're responsible for two of those eight time

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