Food inflation has returned as a problem for Canadian households. According to Statistics Canada, food prices rose 3.3% in July, outpacing overall inflation by 1.6 percentage points. Unlike past cycles, this spike cannot be blamed on volatile global markets. The cause lies much closer to home — in our own policy decisions.

Coffee prices surged 28.6%, confectionery 11.8%, and fresh fruit 3.9%, with grapes alone up nearly 30%. Since March 2025 — when Ottawa ended the GST holiday that had distorted winter data — food inflation has exceeded the overall CPI by an average of 1.4 points. A large part of this gap stems from the counter-tariffs imposed on essential imports, many of which lack viable domestic substitutes.

Two facts reinforce this conclusion. First, the cost of major agricultural i

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