The Conservative Party of Canada has taken a slight lead over the Liberals for the first time since Mark Carney became prime minister in March. A recent poll by Abacus Data indicates that concerns about affordability and the economy are driving this shift in public opinion.

The poll, released on Sunday, shows that 41 percent of decided voters support Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, compared to 39 percent for the Liberals. This marks a four-point drop for the Liberals since early August. The survey was conducted before significant events, including the Air Canada flight attendants’ strike and Carney's government efforts to legislate them back to work. It also preceded Poilievre’s byelection victory in Alberta and Carney’s decision to withdraw counter-tariffs on certain U.S. goods.

Among undecided voters who are certain to participate, both parties are tied at 41 percent. Regionally, the Conservatives are performing well in Alberta and the Prairies, while the Liberals maintain a slight edge in Ontario and Quebec. In British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, the two parties are statistically tied.

The poll reveals that 69 percent of respondents believe it is time for a change in Ottawa, with 42 percent of those indicating there is a viable alternative to the Liberals. Conversely, 31 percent feel the Liberals deserve re-election. Carney's approval rating stands at 49 percent, having dipped below 50 since he assumed leadership, while disapproval has risen to 30 percent from 23 percent in early June.

In terms of net favorability, Carney leads Poilievre by 18 points to 2. Abacus CEO David Coletto noted, "the Conservative coalition remains firm," suggesting that with Poilievre returning to the House of Commons this fall, public opinion may continue to evolve.

The rising cost of living is the primary concern for 60 percent of those surveyed, overshadowing other issues such as the economy (36 percent), the housing crisis (35 percent), and healthcare (33 percent). Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump remains a significant political issue for 38 percent of respondents, although his influence appears to be waning, having dropped from 44 percent earlier in the summer.

The poll indicates that Canadians increasingly view the Conservatives as better equipped to address affordability and economic challenges, while the Liberals are perceived as more capable of handling issues related to Trump.