This week, news reports finally surfaced what political pros have known for years: The Democratic Party has been suffering an historic decline in partisan registrations since 2021.

A full examination of the data, however, reveals warning signs for both parties.

When Joe Biden entered the White House, Democrats had a 10.6 percentage-point lead over Republicans in the 30 states that register voters by party, Louisiana political strategist John Couvillon noted on X.

Today, that lead has shrunk to only 5.6 percentage points.

Those data show a massive, historic shift away from Democrats toward Republicans.

The share of voters identifying as Democrats dropped significantly during the Biden administration, as I explained ahead of last Election Day in predicting Donald Trump’s victory .

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