By Jessica Priest, The Texas Tribune.

Texas colleges could see one of the steepest drops in international student enrollment in the country this fall.

The decline, which comes amid increased scrutiny of international students since President Donald Trump returned to office, would reverse last year’s enrollment growth and could significantly reduce the money these students bring into the state, according to a recent report from NAFSA: Association of International Educators .

NAFSA combined federal visa data from January through May with economic modeling of student spending. The organization projects the number of international students in Texas could fall by about 15%, from roughly 94,000 to 80,000. NAFSA said the decline will reduce international students’ economic contribution from $2.6 billion to $2.2 billion, a difference of about $388 million. That would be the third-largest projected loss among states, behind California and New York.

Nationwide, NAFSA projects a 30%-40% decline in international student enrollment and a loss of $7 billion this academic year.

A separate analysis released on Tuesday by IMPLAN , an economic modeling firm, estimates that a 10% drop in international student spending in a single year would shrink the state’s gross domestic product by about $300 million and put roughly 2,500 jobs at risk. IMPLAN’s model assumes international students, who usually pay higher tuition rates, spend an average of about $35,000 per year, and that the loss of that spending on housing, food and transportation would have ripple effects across the economy.

“A lot of folks think this is mainly an effect on universities, and it will be,” said Bjorn Markeson, an economist with IMPLAN. “But it’s also going to have an effect on the service sector in those communities and a broader effect on the region through the supply chain linkages. Our economy is a network, and if you pull out one piece of it, it’s like pulling a thread on a sweater. It winds its way through the economy and has broader effects.”

The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board is expected to release preliminary fall enrollment numbers in October, though it’s unclear whether those figures will break out international students.

NAFSA said it believes several disruptions are driving the enrollment decline, such as the suspension of visa interviews in May and June, the rollout of new social media vetting rules , limited availability for visa interviews in countries such as India, China and Nigeria, and Trump’s executive order imposing travel restrictions on visitors from 19 countries.

NAFSA noted that the number of F-1 visas issued , the most common type held by international students attending U.S. universities, was down 22% in May compared with the previous year. May was the most recent month for which data was available.

“This analysis, the first to calculate the potential impact of fewer international students on cities and towns across the country, should serve as a clarion call to the State Department that it must act to ensure international students and scholars are able to arrive on U.S. campuses this fall,” said Fanta Aw, NAFSA’s executive director and CEO.

NAFSA warns the projected drop in these students is “just the tip of the iceberg” and could undermine America’s global competitiveness. International students help Texas universities keep academic programs running, advance research and fill jobs in specialized fields.

NAFSA is urging the State Department to expedite visa appointments and processing for all F-1, M-1 and J-1 exchange visitors. M-1 visas are issued to students in vocational and technical programs while J-1 visas are for participants in work- and study-based exchange programs. The group also wants those visa categories to be exempted from the travel restrictions currently affecting 19 countries.

Texas ranks third nationally in international student enrollment, according to federal data . Most of those students come from India, followed by China and Mexico. The University of North Texas has the most international students in the state, and the University of Texas-Dallas comes in a close second. Neither university responded to requests to comment.

UT-Arlington, Texas A&M University and UT-Austin also have thousands of international students.

The Trump administration has placed tremendous new pressure on international students. Earlier this year, Texas universities reported that more than 250 had their legal status unexpectedly marked as “terminated” in a federal immigration database, a move that stripped them of their work authorization and jeopardized their ability to remain in the U.S. The federal government quietly reversed course weeks later and restored the students’ records.

The Trump administration initially said the terminations targeted students who led pro-Palestinian protests across U.S. universities last year or had committed serious crimes. But lawyers for many of those students said their clients had no connection to the protests or had only minor or dismissed criminal charges.

International students told The Texas Tribune the episode left them shaken and distrustful. Some deleted their social media accounts, limited social interactions and avoided discussing politics to stay off immigration authorities’ radar.

The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans and engages with them about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.