President Donald Trump has threatened to dispatch the National Guard to Chicago and other big cities. Yet behind the aggressive talk, data actually shows that most U.S. violent crime has been in a steady decline in recent years.

In Chicago; New York City; Seattle; Baltimore; San Francisco and Portland, Oregon -- all blue-state targets of Trump or his allies -- homicides through the first six months of 2025 were down significantly compared with the same period in 2024, continuing a post-pandemic trend.

Aggravated assaults also were down, with the exception of New York, where they virtually were unchanged. Reports of rape were up in New York and Chicago during the first half of the year but down in the other cities, including a 51% drop in San Francisco.

The Associated Press relied on numbers from AH Datalytics, which tracks crimes across the country using law enforcement data for its Real-Time Crime Index. The index also showed that property crimes, such as theft, burglary and motor vehicle theft, mostly were down in the first six months of 2025.

Trump “says Chicago is a hell hole, a killing field,” Associated Press reporter Ed White said. “Yet, statistics, crime data, show that most violent crimes in these communities have been on a steady decline.”

Despite the numbers, the public's perception is different, and that's something into which Trump might be tapping. The vast majority of Americans, 81%, see crime as a “major problem” in large cities. That’s according to a survey from The AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, though there is much less support for federal control of local police agencies such as Trump's deployment of the National Guard in the District of Columbia.

“Interestingly, despite national data that shows violent crimes declining, there is a difference in public opinion. A lot of, a majority of, Americans polled have said recently that they believe that crime is a major problem in big cities,” White said. “So, there's a perception that runs counter to some of the statistics.”