Republican members of Congress across the country, as they begin to contemplate next year’s midterm elections, have adopted new messaging around their signature legislation, still officially known as the One Big Beautiful Bill. They seem to be dropping that nomenclature entirely and now describe the bill as the largest tax cut in American history. The problem with that, experts and observers say, is that it isn’t true: For many households, taxes will basically be the same next year as they were last year — and Donald Trump’s tariff policies may well result in a higher effective tax rate.
In late August, the office of Rep. Jay Obernolte, a Republican who represents an enormous Southern California district northeast of Los Angeles, sent out mailers touting the accomplishments of H.R. 1, the