The U.S. is set to release new jobs data on Friday, marking the first report since a disappointing jobs report last month led to the dismissal of the top official responsible for labor statistics. The August jobs report revealed a significant slowdown in hiring, raising concerns among economists about a potential recession. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the country added an average of about 35,000 jobs over the three months ending in July, a stark decline from the approximately 196,000 jobs added in the previous three-month period.

Economists predict that U.S. employers hired around 75,000 workers in August. While this figure would indicate an improvement over recent months, it remains significantly lower than the hiring pace earlier in the year. The upcoming jobs data is expected to influence discussions regarding a potential interest rate cut when Federal Reserve policymakers convene in two weeks.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the central bank will "proceed carefully" but has hinted at the possibility of an interest rate cut, suggesting a greater concern for slowing employment growth than for rising prices. A weaker-than-expected jobs report on Friday could solidify expectations for a rate cut, while a stronger report might lead the Fed to delay action to assess the impact of potential inflation from tariffs.

As of late Thursday, investors estimated a 97% chance of a quarter-point rate cut this month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, which gauges market sentiment. Following the release of last month's weak jobs report, President Trump dismissed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. The report included downward revisions, prompting Trump to allege, without evidence, that the job statistics had been "manipulated."

The BLS routinely revises its estimates of jobs added in previous months. McEntarfer, who was appointed by President Biden and confirmed by the Senate in 2024, had a two-decade career in federal service. In a social media post after her dismissal, she expressed gratitude for the opportunity to serve, stating, "It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy."

William Beach, a former BLS commissioner appointed by Trump, criticized McEntarfer's firing, calling it "totally groundless" and a dangerous precedent that undermines the Bureau's statistical mission. McEntarfer did not respond to a request for comment.

In her place, Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, the chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation. Antoni has been a vocal critic of the BLS and is associated with the conservative policy initiative Project 2025. Trump praised Antoni in a social media post, stating, "Our Economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE."