Jamaicans voted Andrew Holness, the leader of the centre-right Jamaica Labour party (JLP), into power for a third consecutive term on September 3. Holness beat Mark Golding of the People’s National party (PNP) in a tight election, with the JLP winning 34 seats and the PNP 29.

A head of state winning a third straight term is a rare feat in a participatory democracy. There are several factors that have contributed to Holness’s enduring appeal before the voters.

Jamaica’s economy has improved since Holness first took office in 2016. Public debt fell from more than 140% of GDP in 2013 to 73.4% by 2024, while the World Bank expects the economy to grow by 1.7% in 2025.

At the same time, Holness has sought to upgrade and improve public access to beaches across Jamaica. Most of the country’s beaches are gated and held in the hands of hoteliers, expats and private companies.

The Holness government introduced an initiative in 2024 to create new “beach parks” for ordinary Jamaicans. It also strenghtened regulations to prevent private developments from blocking public access to beaches.

But what is likely to have contributed most to Holness’s victory are his crime-busting policies. Jamaica has been reeling under gang violence for the past 25 years. As recently as 2023, Jamaica had the second-highest rate of homicide in the Caribbean region – behind only Haiti.

Holness has overseen a steady decline in the country’s murder rate since then. There was an 18.7% decline in homicides in Jamaica from 2023 to 2024, while the island registered an even greater drop of 43% between 2024 and 2025.

Like in nearby gang-infested Haiti, criminality and violence has long thrived in Jamaica owing to political patronage. Most homicides there are carried out by gangs known as “posses”. These groups have in the past been linked to major Jamaican political parties.

The JLP and PNP both fostered the development of posses in inner-cities and deprived areas by providing them with weapons and a free hand to run protection rackets in exchange for political support. Jamaican politicians have on occasion also allegedly paid gangsters to carry out crimes for political gain.

In the 2010s, an article in the Irish Independent accused Bruce Golding, the then-Jamaican JLP prime minister, of openly using the powerful “Shower Posse” gang to intimidate opposition voters in elections three years earlier. Shower Posse was led by Christopher “Dudus” Coke, a convicted drug kingpin who is now jailed in the US.

Golding “categorically denied” the claims at the time, and called them part of a conspiracy to undermine his government. However, regardless of the accuracy of these specific allegations, collusion between criminals and political elites turned Jamaica into a hotbed of criminality and spiralling violence.

Responsive governance

Holness’s success in fighting crime rests on three pillars: fighting urban poverty, clamping down on the drugs trade and putting tight restrictions on the importation of firearms.

One of his main focuses has been enhancing social programmes to reduce the allure of gang membership. His government has put in place a social pension, while also raising the minimum wage. These policies contributed to the national poverty rate falling to 8.2% in 2023 – its lowest level since measurements began in 1989.

Holness also amended Jamaica’s 2014 Gang Suppression Act in 2021, a year into his second term. This gave the police and military more power to combat criminality and was followed by the launch of an anti-gang task force in 2022. The task force oversaw direct combat with national and transnational gangs operating within Jamaica.

That same year, Holness launched his “Get Every Illegal Gun” campaign. This initiative was accompanied by severe penalties for those found in possession of illegal weapons. The countrywide illegal firearms crackdown is widely attributed as having brought down rates of violence across Jamaica.

However, while Holness’s zero tolerance stance towards criminality has successfully tackled crime rates, there are some concerns about his approach. His critics often cite human rights violations associated with the introduction of a state of emergency in parts of the capital Kingston and 14 other parishes in 2022. The measure enabled the authorities to arrest people and search buildings without a warrant.

Holness justified the move by saying gang violence had forced Jamaicans “to hide under their beds, hide their daughters, can’t go to church, and they see their sons and their boyfriends and husbands killed. That’s the reality”.

The election of Holness for a third time is by no means a guarantee that Jamaica will complete its transition from rampant violence to peace. His populist economic promises, such as lowering income tax rate from 25% to 15% earned him much-needed votes. But it is unlikely that such promises can be sustained in the long run.

Jamaican society has also not been completely freed from the ravages of its violent past. Parts of the country, such as Tivoli Gardens, Grants Pen and Trench Town in Kingston, Rose Heights, Flankers and Norwood in the city of Montego Bay, and the most of Spanish Town (colloquially known as the valley of death), still reel from vendetta violence.

It is these lingering fears that may have motivated a voter turnout of just 39.5% in the recent election – a turnout far lower than when Jamaicans last went to the polls in 2020. Holness’s vision of “a stronger, safer, more prosperous Jamaica” is still a long way from the finishing line.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Amalendu Misra, Lancaster University

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Amalendu Misra is a past recipient of British Academy and Nuffield Foundation Fellowships.