The debate over immigration and job availability in Canada has intensified, with the Conservative Party proposing significant changes to the temporary foreign worker (TFW) program. On Wednesday, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner announced their plan to eliminate the TFW program, which allowed nearly 240,000 foreign workers to be employed in Canada in 2023.

Rempel Garner stated that this proposal is just the beginning, indicating that more solutions are forthcoming. While the elimination of the TFW program alone may not resolve the broader issues facing the labor market, it is seen as a necessary step. The TFW program was originally designed to fill specific labor shortages, requiring employers to demonstrate that Canadian workers were unavailable for the positions. However, the program has faced criticism for fraud and lax oversight, leading to a significant increase in the number of TFW permits issued.

Since 2015, the number of TFW permit holders has surged from 73,000 to 184,000. This increase has been particularly notable in sectors such as agriculture, where there are genuine temporary labor needs. The Conservatives plan to address this with a specialized program for agricultural workers. However, the most dramatic growth in TFW permits has occurred in areas traditionally filled by Canadian workers. For instance, permits for cooks and kitchen help have risen by 279% and 4,802%, respectively, since 2015. Other sectors, including construction, administrative support, and retail, have also seen substantial increases in foreign worker permits.

This trend has raised concerns about the impact on young Canadians and those with limited education. Many of these individuals are finding it increasingly difficult to secure jobs as foreign workers fill positions that were once accessible to them. According to recent data from BMO, while the labor force for those aged 15 to 24 grew by 2.8% over the past year, job growth for this demographic was only 1.1%. Youth unemployment has increased by five percentage points in the last two years, while the youth labor pool has expanded by 7.4%.

BMO economist Robert Kavcic noted, "This is not a participation story; it’s a population growth story." He suggested that with immigration caps now in place, particularly for students and non-permanent residents, the youth job market may gradually rebalance, although this process will take time. CIBC also highlighted that the rapid increase in Canada’s population, especially among non-permanent residents, has contributed to rising joblessness, as labor demand has not kept pace with the influx of workers.

The situation is affecting youth even in economically robust regions like Alberta, according to ATB Financial. The International Mobility Program, which allows employers to hire certain foreign workers without proving a labor market need, has also contributed to the issue. This program accounted for 85% of temporary workers in 2023, with one million workers participating last year. While it has some beneficial aspects, it primarily permits former international students and their spouses to enter the labor market without the same restrictions as the TFW program.