Here's the Best-Case Scenario for the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA), According to the Social Security Board of Trustees

Beneficiaries could receive slightly larger-than-expected checks in 2026, but it's not all good news.

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is an annual increase in benefits that aims to help monthly checks maintain their buying power over time.

The official announcement for the 2026 COLA will likely come in mid-October, after the Social Security Administration finishes analyzing third-quarter inflation data. But in the meantime, there are already some estimates for where next year's adjustment might land -- and there's good and not-so-good news.

How the COLA is calculated

Most people don't need to know all the nitty-gritty details of how the COLA is determined, but it can be helpful to have at least a basic understanding of where the numbers come from.

The COLA is ba