What Ukraine really needs from Europe is missiles that can hit Moscow

As Ukraine’s European allies debate their contribution to a potential settlement of the war , it’s a good moment to learn from past mistakes.

Russia’s attack on Ukraine and capture of Crimea in 2014 showed the perils of a security vacuum. Afterwards, Ukraine relied on Russian goodwill and an assortment of bilateral and multilateral agreements from allies that offered little deterrence against future aggression. Moscow maintained its tradition that only deals backed by hard power or serving its interest are worth respecting – and duly escalated to a full-scale invasion in 2022.

The lesson is clear. Only a deal backed by hard power from the Ukrainian side would have a chance to survive and deliver a stable settlement.

Before considering the substance of a realistic security framework