Just as a tense bow string pulled tightly releases energy in a sudden powerful snap, bitcoin (BTC) seems to be building energy for wild price swings in October, mirroring a pattern from 2023.

The crypto market has been boring lately, with bitcoin trading back and forth between $110,000 and $120,000. That has dented volatility expectations. For instance, Volmex FInance's BVIV index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility (IV), has dropped to an annualized 38%, reversing the brief spike to 41% in late August. The index appears on track to test the two-year low of 36% reached four weeks ago.

Implied volatility represents the market’s expectation of future volatility. It is derived from option pricing and reflects the one standard deviation range of expected price movement of the under

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