History says Edmonton city councillors seeking re-election are overwhelmingly likely to win next month, though perceived feelings of dissatisfaction with the current council could cut into what is normally a near-insurmountable incumbent advantage.

Municipal governments have the highest incumbency rates in Canada, with peer-reviewed studies showing a national average rate of around 90 per cent, significantly higher than at provincial or federal levels.

In Edmonton, councillors seeking to return to their jobs have won 87 per cent of the time over the past 16 elections covering the past 51 years, with just 17 incumbents being defeated, compared to 116 who were re-elected. Every incumbent candidate won re-election in seven of those votes.

University of Calgary political scientist Jack

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